Hand breakdown

Airball's $231,500 decision against Peter

Hustler Casino Live · Million Dollar Marathon, part 1 of 3 · No-Limit Hold'em · $500/$1,000 · December 2, 2025

Peter calls Airball's opening raise. Then Senor Tilt 3-bets, Airball makes it $102,000 and Peter moves all in for $333,500.

Video by Hustler Casino Live on YouTube, starting at 4:18:08 in part 1

Players in the hand

Stakes
$500/$1,000
Ante
$2,000
Make the call before you see the cards
Results Hidden Shown

Holds on every hand breakdown page and is remembered on this device.

You're Nik Airball. Fold or call $231,500?

Your cards

ace of spades and queen of hearts
Pot
$458,000
To call
$231,500

It's $231,500 to call for a pot of $689,500 with your call in it. You're last to act.

The hand so far

  1. 4:18:33 You raise to $5,000. Peter calls.
  2. 4:18:33 Senor Tilt raises to $19,000.
  3. 4:18:33 You raise to $102,000.
  4. 4:19:25 Peter goes all-in for $333,500. Senor Tilt folds.
Your decision

Or skip to what happened

The video's title, thumbnail, graphics and commentary can give the result away.

Show what happened

What happened

Nik Airball called.

  • Run it twice
  • Nik Airball 28.3%
    ace of spades and queen of hearts

    Nik Airball won $356,000

  • Peter 71.7%
    king of spades and king of diamonds

    Peter lost $333,500

  • queen of clubs and three of spades

    Senor Tilt lost $19,000

Run 1

nine of clubs, ace of diamonds, six of hearts, four of hearts and jack of diamonds

Run 2

five of diamonds, ace of hearts, ace of clubs, two of spades and ten of spades
Final pot
$689,500

What made it hard

Peter had called Airball's opening raise. After Senor Tilt 3-bet and Airball made it $102,000, Peter moved all in for $333,500. Senor Tilt folded, so Airball, holding ace-queen with $732,500 behind, was the last to act. Calling meant putting $231,500 more into a pot of $458,000.

Chance to win when the money went in

Each hand's share of the pot across every way the rest of the board could come, ties split, with every hand in the pot face up. At the table, nobody could see the others' cards.

  • Nik Airball 28.3%
  • Peter 71.7%

Peter had a 49.6% chance to win both runs.

Who got lucky, in dollars

What each player collected, minus their expected share of the pot when the money went in. The cards still to come decided the difference.

  • Nik Airball +$494,052 Nik Airball: expected share $195,448, collected $689,500. Luck: +$494,052.
  • Peter −$494,052 Peter: expected share $494,052, collected $0. Luck: −$494,052.

Every action, street by street

  1. Preflop
    1. 4:18:33 Nik Airball raises to $5,000 Not shown in the broadcast's graphics. It happened before the graphics came up. The pot and the player's chips show it.
    2. 4:18:33 Peter calls $5,000 Not shown in the broadcast's graphics. It happened before the graphics came up. The pot and the player's chips show it.
    3. 4:18:33 Senor Tilt raises to $19,000
    4. 4:18:33 Nik Airball raises to $102,000
    5. 4:19:25 Peter goes all-in for $333,500
    6. 4:19:26 Senor Tilt folds Not shown in the broadcast's graphics. They put in no more chips and took no further part in the hand.
    7. 4:20:25 Nik Airball calls $333,500

    Pot: $689,500

  2. Flop nine of clubs, ace of diamonds and six of hearts

    Pot: $689,500

  3. Turn four of hearts

    Pot: $689,500

  4. River jack of diamonds

    Pot: $689,500

  5. Second run five of diamonds, ace of hearts, ace of clubs, two of spades and ten of spades

The night's other big hands

The players

Share this hand

Nik Airball to act, with $231,500 to call and $458,000 in the pot. Stacks at the start of the hand: Nik Airball $834,500, Peter $333,500 and Senor Tilt $1.38M.

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